Warning Signs from a Melting Arctic
By: Ronak Bhagia
In December of 2019, a new working paper conducting a statistical analysis of the Arctic sea ice depletion was published by economists Francis X. Diebold of the University of Pennsylvania and Glenn D. Rudebusch of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The study alarmingly concluded that there is “almost a 60 percent chance of an effectively ice-free Arctic Ocean in the 2030s”. This prediction demonstrates the accelerating impacts of climate change, as models previously showed ice-free Septembers in the Arctic (when the yearly melting cycle is at its maximum) beginning anywhere from 2040 to the 2100s.
The impact of losing the Arctic sea ice is significant from an ecological, economical, and environmental perspective. Ecologically, the polar ecosystem is home to ice-dependent species like polar bears, reindeer, walrus, seals, and more, all of which face diminishing habitats and food sources. Additionally, humans residing in the Arctic face an increasing risk of relocation as coastal erosion is magnified, wildfires as permafrost thaws away exposing highly flammable bio-decay, and food shortages as marine fisheries decline in health.
The melting sea ice and warmer temperatures also creates a positive feedback loop, further generating climate altering effects. Arctic sea ice has a high refractive index, reflecting a large portion of the light energy from our sun back. As it melts, this light energy is absorbed by the ocean instead, increasing the temperature of the ocean and further propagating melting ice. As permafrost is lost or eroded due to increasing temperatures, large amounts of trapped carbon dioxide and methane are released, providing accelerating fuel for climate change while simultaneously acidifying the Arctic ocean and hurting ocean flora and fauna.
The self-accelerating nature of climate change in the Arctic, as well as evidence from the study showing the effects progressing at an even faster rate than climate models originally indicated, heighten the need for immediate and drastic pro-climate legislation/action. As discussed in a Scientific American article, limiting the total global rise in average temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius can minimize the chance of Arctic sea ice being completely lost. With every one degree Celsius increase in global average temperatures, the amount of sea ice in the Arctic decreases by just over 4 million square miles. Considering that minimum yearly sea ice in the Arctic is currently around 4 million square miles, a temperature increase of 2 degrees Celsius would almost certainly result in a full loss of Arctic ice during the summer. This would fulfill Diebold and Rudebusch’s prediction of over a 50% chance that Arctic summer sea ice disappears in the 2030s.
However, there is still hope. Sea ice melting is reversible -- if we act decisively to halt the rising of global temperatures and changing climate, the sea ice can recover. We can be the impetus for protecting our climate -- and our oceans -- by using our voices. Contact your congressional representatives, engage in community initiatives, and, most importantly in the near term, vote!
